Don't buy gold until you read this!

Ever since I called for a major top in Gold in a blog dated August 24th, 2011 gold has continued it's steady slide.  

At a time when most were predicting Gold was going to the moon, I warned gold is not the "safe haven" many think it is, and seeing is believing. 


I enjoy the Gold Rush series as much as anyone else, but I also recognize irrational exuberance when I see it, and when you see a sign on every corner which reads, "CA$H 4 GOLD" you know this is not business as usual.
  



Over the past year we've seen gold money forced into equities, although much of that money found safety in US treasuries.
  
During the profit taking of the past few weeks we've watched hedge funds dump their gold positions in order to raise much needed capital, and even today - in a run on Greek banks - we see Greeks fleeing to the safety of the Euro. That's right in the fear that the Greek government is about to collapse the Greeks are not hording gold, but Euro's! I call this a successful test run for what is going to happen when our house of cards comes unglued. 

Gold is not the safe haven it was cracked up to be, it's only a speculative metal not much different than copper, aluminum, or zinc. 


Don't buy gold unless you have a firm grasp of fundamentals and the technicals, or you don't mind losing 90% of your money in a speculative metal, because when Gold sells into Primary wave (C), it's going to make the past few months look like a Sunday Picnic. 

 Although the charts pointed to this shakeout, I believe it was exacerbated in a conspiracy perpetrated by certain individuals in the media, the US treasury, and Goldman Sachs, and I intend to expose this in a separate blog. 

FREE Forex Technical Charts with Targets

It's elliottwavehound.com's 2nd anniversary  

it's time to shake things up, and broaden our horizons. 

(republished 5/12/2012)

It's taken nearly 2 years to work all the bugs out of the website, block the hackers, and weed out the non-believers, but with over 300 charts in rotation,10,000+ charting hours under my belt, and a small army of diehard members, we're a force to be reckoned with. 

My members are right...

   “Good thing no cheap, cheap thing no good”

 Although I like to try to offer a deal once in a while; we have too much going for us right now to be giving it all away for peanuts.

I guess I had to learn the hard way, that lowering your prices sends the wrong message, and this may be the topic of my next blog.

1. New members get a 20% discount off the regular subscription price, and we're now accepting all popular work currencies, from traders all over the globe: Japan, China, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Norway, Israel, Mexico, Brazil, Thailand, and the Philippines. 

   

2. We've expanded our forum to include hot stocks, and chart requests (don't buy anything in this market without checking the technicals first). Whenever leveraged ETFs aren't performing - in relativity flat stock pickers market - we have a backup plan (a basket full of beaten down stocks with killer technicals).  No doubt the bulls are still in control, and planning to employ continued sector rotations in order to make everything look rosy into the frigging election, but I'm if we're going to buy the broader market in the final leg up in a 100 year trend! 

This brings me to my next point; Forex. Why limit yourself to trading equities & commodities in a rigged market (controlled by thugs), when Forex is the most liquid traded market, and trades 24hrs a day?        

3. Welcome to FREE Forex Technical Charts: Right here on this blog, just like the good old days, for donations only. If my Forex charts make you money, please throw me bone using the PayPal link. I'm just a starving artist, who found he has a knack for spotting patterns and knowing where to place trend lines on Stock charts, and is trying to pay his bills like everyone else.

At first I thought why not just expand elliottwavehound.com to include Forex trading, and that's still a possibility, but I'd like try to breath some new life into this space.

a. If you're new to Forex there are a ton of educational resources at forex.com; pick up a copy of the Forex eBook - Read and Learn.  

b. Forex is a highly speculative, and risky market, yet it's the largest and most liquid of all. It also offers an alternative trade when U.S. markets are closed, or when no other decent can be found. 
 Disclosure: I have no personal stake in the Forex market, nor do I intend to trade it in the near future - through 2012.                                                             

Charts are up so get on board with Forex trading now!

4. elliottwavehound.com affiliate program is coming soon.  

Here's how it works: You promote elliottwavehound.com on your website, through email, word of mouth, etc. and for every new membership that signs up - thanks to your hard work - you get paid up to 50% of the membership dues on each and every new and recurring membership, for life! Whats more is when you refer other affiliates you get 10% commission on each of their referrals, and another 5% on 3rd tier referrals. 

    

5. fulltimervusa.com [linked]: This is my new baby! As many of you may already know, preparations are being made to take this show on the road - in a Class A Diesel Pusher RV. The technology is readily available to connect to the internet by satellite from anywhere in the USA (and Mexico), and with a little luck it's going to be sooner rather than later, God willing. What does this have to do with stock trading? Mobility, to keep from getting burned out (as a market timer), and promotion, among other things...   

follow me on Twitter  @Elliottwavehnd for the latest Forex trades/charts and new developments. 

Trading involves risk! Please read our bulletproof disclaimer as well as the Forex disclaimer [linked], or at the bottom of this page

Please read carefully before subscribing to any Forex services  The products referenced at this site are analytical tools only, and are not intended to replace individual research or licensed investment advice. Unique experiences and past performances do not guarantee future results. Testimonials are not representative of all clients. Certain accounts may have worse performance than those indicated or alluded to. Trading currencies involves substantial risk, and there is always the potential for loss. Your trading results may vary. No representation is being made that these products, and any associated advice or training, will guarantee profits, or not result in losses from trading. Neither the products, any explanation or demonstration of their operation, nor any training held in conjunction therewith, including, without limitation, through online chat, in conjunction with our advertising and promotional campaigns, during our in-person seminars or otherwise, should be construed as providing a trade recommendation or the giving of investment advice. The purchase, sale or advice regarding a currency can only be performed by a licensed Broker/Dealer. Neither I, nor any of my affiliates or associates involved in the production and maintenance of these products or this site, is a registered Broker/Dealer or Investment Advisor in any State or Federally-sanctioned jurisdiction. All purchasers of products referenced at this site are encouraged to consult with a licensed representative of their choice regarding any particular trade or trading strategy.

Media Reports: Point to Top in Commercial Real Estate Market

Commercial Real Estate Market

Media Hype signals the kiss of death...

Media Reports are one of the most reliable key sentiment indicators that we use to identify the end of a market cycle, and a change in herd behavior. Once you read it on the front page of your news paper, it's already old news on wall street.

We first noticed the media's hype concerning the commercial real estate back in March, and this seemed to climax during the last week in April.  

NYC office rents seen rising 16% through 2013 

"Manhattan commercial asking rents will advance 16% over the next three years, the second biggest gain in the nation, according to a forecast released by Cushman & Wakefield Inc. on Thursday.

Only San Francisco, where rents are expected to jump 33% through 2013, will best New York, the report said.

New York is benefitting from a much stronger job market than many cities in the country, said Maria Sicola, head of research for the Americas at Cushman. She said that in New York, 40% of the jobs lost during the recession have come back.

Read more: http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20110331/REAL_ESTATE/110339970#ixzz1tYDbqC9

I have always enjoyed good fiction, but I think it takes the imagination of a 3 year old to rationalize that a 40% come back in the jobs market equates to a 33% projected yearly gains in an already bloated Commercial Real Estate market!  

Irrational exuberance surrounding the REIT sector seems equally absurd, considering Fed easy money policy combined with Pressure on banks to continue reckless lending practices in the face of the a liquidity drought brought on by the collapse in the residential real estate market has only continued to fuel the commercial real-estate bubble globally.

Chines ghost cities:

History teaches us: A collapse in residential real estate is always followed by one in commercial real estate. Cycles every 25 years or so; so don't think that because the next shoe didn't fall in '08... that there isn't a size 12 coming in 2012.

 

 

 

Definition: Reinflate

Reinflate - Re-Inflate: 

1. Term for fed policy  which attempts to fill deflated asset bubbles with easy money. 

2. Term made up by money managers who hope to keep you confident, and fully invested, so that they can keep up with the payments on their Mercedes Bends SL500 each month.   

There are several problems with the above hypothesis:

1. Easy money seldom ends up where it's needed/intended; often causing asset bubbles elsewhere, such as the housing bubble of '08. 

2. Rather than fostering an environment of accountability, easy money policy encourages more risk taking, on the part of investors. "After all, the fed will always just bail us out when we screw-up."

3. An inflate policy keeps cost of living prices high, while at the same time asset prices may be deflating, and wage growth is stagnant, placing an undue burden on the middle-class and the poor.    

 

It's time for Tech Crash Part Deux

 Lock the 14th floor windows, and take the perms-bulls shoe laces away!

That's right, it's the time you've all been waiting for; time for the thugs on Wall Street to finish what they started in 2000; to finish robbing the wealth of America - and elsewhere.

As you can clearly see - on the chart below - big tech has finally finished 10 years of consolidation in primary wave "B" - retracing 50% of the first leg down in the tech bubble, and now the NASDAQ is poised to lose 80% - 90% of it's value in P-C (primary wave C). Look, there's little need for technology in a deflationary spiral. What the consumer really needs is a decent job, and small government (less taxes + less regulation = lower prices).      

 In a related story from [Bloomberg]:
 "Intel, IBM See Sales Stall as Europe Crisis Crimps Orders"

 

"Intel Corp. (INTC) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), two of the computer industry’s biggest bellwethers, posted the slowest sales growth in years as the European slump weighed on orders last quarter.

IBM’s revenue climbed 0.3 percent to $24.7 billion in the period, while Intel sales rose 0.5 percent to $12.9 billion. That was the smallest increase for either company since the third quarter of 2009, when the U.S. economy was just emerging from recession."

The truth is the crash which started in 2000, caused a subsequent bubble in the housing market, which caused a liquidity, and derivatives bubble... which subsequently required the American taxpayer to bailout of the entire financial system, GM, and others (foreign banks), in 2009. Continued fed intervention, AKA "easy money policy", combined with money fleeing the trouble in the UK and elsewhere, have since helped to fuel another U.S. stock market bubble, as "faith in the fed", and greed trumps common sense, yet the "recession" has just begun.